OAFC BBS - All Topics: Archive: 2005 A's hitter projections from the Bill James Handbook
Christmas comes a little early as I have the 2005 Bill James Handbook now. They have 2005 player projections for hitters only in the book so might as well post the A's players. This book came out in November so it was before any of the new A's players were added so obviously playing time isn't going to be accurate and the projections are based on all players being healthy.
Interesting that Crosby and Swisher are projected to hit more homeruns than Durazo.
Geez, I'll take 151 RBIs from our 2base slot, anyday, I do think Thomas will hit double the 4HRs, at a minimum. He was a backup last year and hit 7 in 236 ABs.
It's not 151 RBIs from our 2B slot, because I'd guess that the book came out before we got Ginter, so those would be his numbers as the everyday 2B on the Brewers.
That info is awersome, what about pitching I would like predictions with Mulder/Huddy and our new starters
The Chavez numbers make me cry. Sounds about right for our 3B, but geez, the dude's due for a .300/40HR season SOMEDAY.
Yes it's supposed to be 40 strikeouts.
Have to keep in mind that these kinds of predictions will never stray far from last season's performance (except where there was a significant injury). Also, they won't capture breakout years and may not give enough weight to other factors (such as Durazo getting more comfortable with the AL). I'd expect bigger years out of Durazo and Chavez. I'm also skeptical of Swisher's power numbers - but if they're accurate, he replaces Dye with no problem (offensively).
With the kind of year Dye had offensively last season, replacing him isn't that hard.
Let's not forget that Dye carried the club offensively for the first six weeks of last season while Kotsay and Chavvy were struggling, and Ruby couldn't buy an RBI. It wasn't like he was a total waste.
That's right. Without Dye's contributions those first six weeks, we finish third. And defensively, he was huge all season.
Yes, but there were weeks at a time when he couldn't BUY a hit. Of course, some of that was due to injury.
Swisher's size does concern me a bit. He has the swing and the eye in my humble opinion, but obviously (pardon the trite quip) size matters.
Dye's production replaces Tejada's from the previous year, now Swisher is supposed to replace Dye's? Geez. This is the way I see it, you're going to have a much more productive and active top of the order guys with Kendall and Kotsay, I mean BB wants guys on On Base....but geez lets get them to score. I think we'll see some running this summer. The K boys can distract the pitchers into mistakes against Chavez, #4 guy and Durazo. Not bad, hopefully we won't fall into a station to station rut again, too easy for the opponents. As for production, I see Durazo upping his numbers, Chavez will probably hit 35 homeruns and drive in 110-115 with a full season. He played in 125 a year ago, add on another 100-100 at bats, there some increased production there. Crosby will continue to scale the learning curve. We've seen the best of Hatte, Ginter will help in run producing situations. I think the big key is Kots and Kendall, if those guys can set the table we can see a few crooked numbers. Stats are great, but I think the overall team concept will kick in and we will generate some runs...hopefully.
My prediction for 2005: Byrnes will have a monster year, catapulting him into superstar status around the league. Quickly, and wisely, Beane will sign him to a 3 year extension. Byrnes will hit .310 with almost 200 hits, smack 35 HRs (4 of which will be grand slams) and have 110 RBIs as he is moved into the 4th hole behind Chavez. One of the best fastball hitters on the club, opposing pitchers will fear him, but pitch to him anyway so they don't have to pitch to Durazo, batting 5th. Byrnes will also go against classic Moneyball philosophy and swipe 28 bases. Finally redeeming himself to questioning A's fans the world over, Byrnes will play a spectacular left field and win a gold glove.
The A's running more? Over BB dead...
I just don't want to see so many guy LOB. How many times did runners die at 2nd or 3rd? Ugh. Please -- no more of that.
After Chavez and Durazo, who's going to drive them in. Crosby will have to develop quickly to move into a key RBI spot.
Byrnes doubled and homered for Licey of the Dominican league in his second game with them. Hope he keeps it up. As for driving in runs after Chavez and Durazo.....its probably gonna be Byrnes and Crosby as homerun threats....and as for just getting base knocks to get the runs in.....we'll have to rely on Hatte for that.
Dominican League's regular season has ended; they begin playoffs on 1/2/05.
Batting Kendall 8th would be wasting his superior OBP, or at least not utilizing it to its maximum efficiency. He and Kotsay should always bat 1-2.
I agree about Byrnes. He was absolute tops on this club against lefties. As I've said before, he and Thomas could possibly be huge in a platoon situation. Against lefties, I think the 5th slot would be good for Byrnes, then put Durazo in the 6 slot.
Yeh, they're going to have to make a decision on Johnson; he will be 26 in August. So the time would seem to be now.
Until we get that big righthanded stick, we will see something like it next spring.
I think Hatte will start ahead of Johnson, with
I looked at the prediction numbers again. Another
Rocket, those predictions are purely statistical based on past performance and age. They don't take into account where a guy's going to hit in the order.
I like the idea of having him start at least for maybe for the first month and a half, then reevaluate the situation, if he's progressing, than you can talk trade for Hatteberg, if he's not, Hatteberg starts and Johnson is outrighted until he is needed. I think for him to start he's going to need a spectacular spring to warrant that spot. Anyone in the know, hows his glove work.
I agree, raiderjohn. As far as his glove, it's about average ... and he has been working darn hard to get it there. In other words, I'm sure he's as good as Hatteberg is over there, but don't expect much more.
Even if Johnson is not that much better, I think it will take a huge load off of Hattey - he kinda burned out by the end of the season last year.
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