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2005 A's hitter projections from the Bill James Handbook

OAFC BBS - All Topics: Archive: 2005 A's hitter projections from the Bill James Handbook
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By yc2578 on Friday, December 24, 2004 - 09:12 pm:

Christmas comes a little early as I have the 2005 Bill James Handbook now. They have 2005 player projections for hitters only in the book so might as well post the A's players. This book came out in November so it was before any of the new A's players were added so obviously playing time isn't going to be accurate and the projections are based on all players being healthy.

Eric Byrnes
.274/.332/.459, 562 AB, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 37 2B, 93 R, 49 BB, 96 K, 14 SB

Eric Chavez
.275/.366/.513, 563 AB, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 34 2B, 94 R, 81 BB, 106 K, 6 SB

Bobby Crosby
.258/.330/.461, 558 AB, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 37 2B, 79 R, 60 BB, 130 K, 12 SB

Erubiel Durazo
.290/.384/.491, 466 AB, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 29 2B, 78 R, 71 BB, 98 K, 2 SB

Mark Ellis
.261/.330/.392, 475 AB, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 27 2B, 73 R, 49 BB, 72 K, 5 SB

Keith Ginter
.261/.335/.462, 502 AB, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 31 2B, 70 R, 56 BB, 115 K, 7 SB

Scott Hatteberg
.265/.350/.397, 547 AB, 13 HR, 69 RBI, 31 2B, 69 R, 71 BB, 57 K, 0 SB

Jason Kendall
.309/.372/.406, 537 AB, 6 HR, 52 RBI, 30 2B, 79 R, 54 BB, 40 K, 10 SB

Bobby Kielty
.251/.356/.422, 287 AB, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 17 2B, 44 R, 47 BB, 55 K, 3 SB

Mark Kotsay
.292/.354/.435, 559 AB, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 33 2B, 76 R, 54 BB, 73 K, 8 SB

Adam Melhuse
.272/.336/.456, 272 AB, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 17 2B, 36 R, 26 BB, 55 K, 0 SB

Marco Scutaro
.284/.328/.424, 335 AB, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 22 2B, 40 R, 22 BB, 44 K, 3 SB

Nick Swisher
.234/.342/.440, 539 AB, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 35 2B, 95 R, 89 BB, 129 K, 3 SB

Charles Thomas
.294/.351/.429, 231 AB, 4 HR, 29 RBI, 13 2B, 34 R, 20 BB, 4 K, 4 SB

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By rocket on Friday, December 24, 2004 - 09:50 pm:

Interesting that Crosby and Swisher are projected to hit more homeruns than Durazo.

Looks like he predicted Thomas to be a backup.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By deajay on Friday, December 24, 2004 - 11:44 pm:

Geez, I'll take 151 RBIs from our 2base slot, anyday, I do think Thomas will hit double the 4HRs, at a minimum. He was a backup last year and hit 7 in 236 ABs.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By bigthree17 on Sunday, December 26, 2004 - 11:31 pm:

It's not 151 RBIs from our 2B slot, because I'd guess that the book came out before we got Ginter, so those would be his numbers as the everyday 2B on the Brewers.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By jtraeg on Monday, December 27, 2004 - 12:46 pm:

That info is awersome, what about pitching I would like predictions with Mulder/Huddy and our new starters

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By lightfoot on Monday, December 27, 2004 - 02:48 pm:

The Chavez numbers make me cry. Sounds about right for our 3B, but geez, the dude's due for a .300/40HR season SOMEDAY.

Very interesting predictions to look at, though. Particularly at Crosby and Swisher. I'd say a few less K's for Swish, though, even with the growing pains.

And I believe in Hatty more than .265. Seems odd that he'd have an extra 9 K in fewer ABs, though.

Only four strikeouts for Thomas? Would that be a typo? Seems like an odd prediction.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By yc2578 on Monday, December 27, 2004 - 03:14 pm:

Yes it's supposed to be 40 strikeouts.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By dansward on Tuesday, December 28, 2004 - 07:17 am:

Have to keep in mind that these kinds of predictions will never stray far from last season's performance (except where there was a significant injury). Also, they won't capture breakout years and may not give enough weight to other factors (such as Durazo getting more comfortable with the AL). I'd expect bigger years out of Durazo and Chavez. I'm also skeptical of Swisher's power numbers - but if they're accurate, he replaces Dye with no problem (offensively).

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By eyleenn on Tuesday, December 28, 2004 - 11:39 am:

With the kind of year Dye had offensively last season, replacing him isn't that hard.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By bigthree17 on Tuesday, December 28, 2004 - 11:47 am:

Let's not forget that Dye carried the club offensively for the first six weeks of last season while Kotsay and Chavvy were struggling, and Ruby couldn't buy an RBI. It wasn't like he was a total waste.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By deajay on Tuesday, December 28, 2004 - 11:56 am:

That's right. Without Dye's contributions those first six weeks, we finish third. And defensively, he was huge all season.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By eyleenn on Tuesday, December 28, 2004 - 01:47 pm:

Yes, but there were weeks at a time when he couldn't BUY a hit. Of course, some of that was due to injury.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By okplayer on Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 04:53 pm:

Swisher's size does concern me a bit. He has the swing and the eye in my humble opinion, but obviously (pardon the trite quip) size matters.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By raiderjohn on Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 05:11 pm:

Dye's production replaces Tejada's from the previous year, now Swisher is supposed to replace Dye's? Geez. This is the way I see it, you're going to have a much more productive and active top of the order guys with Kendall and Kotsay, I mean BB wants guys on On Base....but geez lets get them to score. I think we'll see some running this summer. The K boys can distract the pitchers into mistakes against Chavez, #4 guy and Durazo. Not bad, hopefully we won't fall into a station to station rut again, too easy for the opponents. As for production, I see Durazo upping his numbers, Chavez will probably hit 35 homeruns and drive in 110-115 with a full season. He played in 125 a year ago, add on another 100-100 at bats, there some increased production there. Crosby will continue to scale the learning curve. We've seen the best of Hatte, Ginter will help in run producing situations. I think the big key is Kots and Kendall, if those guys can set the table we can see a few crooked numbers. Stats are great, but I think the overall team concept will kick in and we will generate some runs...hopefully.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By rayfossefan on Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 07:07 pm:

My prediction for 2005: Byrnes will have a monster year, catapulting him into superstar status around the league. Quickly, and wisely, Beane will sign him to a 3 year extension. Byrnes will hit .310 with almost 200 hits, smack 35 HRs (4 of which will be grand slams) and have 110 RBIs as he is moved into the 4th hole behind Chavez. One of the best fastball hitters on the club, opposing pitchers will fear him, but pitch to him anyway so they don't have to pitch to Durazo, batting 5th. Byrnes will also go against classic Moneyball philosophy and swipe 28 bases. Finally redeeming himself to questioning A's fans the world over, Byrnes will play a spectacular left field and win a gold glove.

Go Byrnsey!!!

(hey, I can dream, can't I?)

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By rocket on Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 07:50 pm:

The A's running more? Over BB dead...

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By eyleenn on Wednesday, December 29, 2004 - 10:18 pm:

I just don't want to see so many guy LOB. How many times did runners die at 2nd or 3rd? Ugh. Please -- no more of that.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By dansward on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 07:57 am:

After Chavez and Durazo, who's going to drive them in. Crosby will have to develop quickly to move into a key RBI spot.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By chavvy03 on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 09:35 am:

Byrnes doubled and homered for Licey of the Dominican league in his second game with them. Hope he keeps it up. As for driving in runs after Chavez and Durazo.....its probably gonna be Byrnes and Crosby as homerun threats....and as for just getting base knocks to get the runs in.....we'll have to rely on Hatte for that.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By raiderjohn on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 10:36 am:

Kotsay
Hatteberg
Chavez
Byrnes
Durazo
Ginter
Crosby
Kendall
Swisher

It's an interesting thought to put Byrnes in the 4th hole. Maybe have Hatteberg bat 2, to keep the hit and run in play...then Kendall 8th with Swisher taking pitches allowing Kendall to run.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By deajay on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 10:49 am:

Dominican League's regular season has ended; they begin playoffs on 1/2/05.

As for the lineup, they seem pretty set on batting Kendall 2nd. As for Hatteberg, I'd like to see Johnson get a chance with Hatteberg on the bench and backing up 1b and DH to start, anyway. I really think the time has come for them to find out whether Johnson has a place on this club. To do that, he is going to have to play everyday. No doubt his ST will have a lot to say about that; but I just hope they aren't automatically discarding him as a regular on this club, without giving him fair opportunity. We are really hearing nothing about him as a possibility in our lineup next season.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By bigthree17 on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 10:50 am:

Batting Kendall 8th would be wasting his superior OBP, or at least not utilizing it to its maximum efficiency. He and Kotsay should always bat 1-2.

Assuming no further major roster changes, last year Byrnes proved he raked left-handed pitching. I'd be okay with him hitting 5th or 6th against lefties. Against righties, he was barely mediocre, so I'd bat him 7th or 8th. If Thomas is effective, I don't think Byrnes gets 400+ AB's against RHP next year anyway.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By deajay on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 11:00 am:

I agree about Byrnes. He was absolute tops on this club against lefties. As I've said before, he and Thomas could possibly be huge in a platoon situation. Against lefties, I think the 5th slot would be good for Byrnes, then put Durazo in the 6 slot.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By raiderjohn on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 11:22 am:

Kotsay
Kendall
Chavez
Durazo
Byrnes
Ginter
Crosby
Johnson
Swisher

I guess Hatteberg as bench insurance in case Johnson goes Pena on us, is not a bad idea. Johnson would play everyday, while Hatteberg is there every 5th-6th day to spell him or Durazo.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By deajay on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 11:27 am:

Yeh, they're going to have to make a decision on Johnson; he will be 26 in August. So the time would seem to be now.

By the way, he hit his 12th HR in the Mexican League two nites ago, but he is only hitting .252. I think he may have a pretty good obp, because he seems to get one or two walks a game. However, my daily updates don't include that stat.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By pachyderm on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 11:34 am:

Kotsay
Kendall
Chavez
Durazo
Johnson/Hatteberg
Ginter
Crosby
Swisher
Byrnes

Use Byrnes as 9th hitter since we're in the AL, thus having two lead off hitters, which is valuable during the game. Traditional in the AL, the weakest hitter hits 8th anyway.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By jerryo1 on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 12:36 pm:

L-R-L-L-L-R-R-S-R??

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By raiderjohn on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 12:54 pm:

Until we get that big righthanded stick, we will see something like it next spring.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By rocket on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 01:04 pm:

I think Hatte will start ahead of Johnson, with
Johnson still getting a lot of at bats. The year
after will be the season Johnson gets starter
playing time, to prove he is a full time player or
not.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By rocket on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 01:08 pm:

I looked at the prediction numbers again. Another
weird prediction is that Swisher is projected to score quite a few more runs than Kotsay, and second only to Chavez for the A's.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By dansward on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 02:15 pm:

Rocket, those predictions are purely statistical based on past performance and age. They don't take into account where a guy's going to hit in the order.

Either Johnson starts or he's gone. He doesn't need any more AAA, and he's a waste on the bench. A young guy who's never played in the majors is unlikely to be a successful PH. I supposed they could just send him back to Sacto to await a mid-season Hatteberg or Durazo trade. I think Johnson should be given every opportunity to become the everyday 1B.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By raiderjohn on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 02:24 pm:

I like the idea of having him start at least for maybe for the first month and a half, then reevaluate the situation, if he's progressing, than you can talk trade for Hatteberg, if he's not, Hatteberg starts and Johnson is outrighted until he is needed. I think for him to start he's going to need a spectacular spring to warrant that spot. Anyone in the know, hows his glove work.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By deajay on Thursday, December 30, 2004 - 02:40 pm:

I agree, raiderjohn. As far as his glove, it's about average ... and he has been working darn hard to get it there. In other words, I'm sure he's as good as Hatteberg is over there, but don't expect much more.

The interesting thing is, most scouts et al, think in Swisher, they have what could become a GG first baseman. Obviously, though, they want him in the outfield; but if a need ever arises, that's always an option. As it is, as we did a couple times last season, we will occasionally see him at first in the future.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message   By oakchick on Thursday, January 06, 2005 - 04:38 pm:

Even if Johnson is not that much better, I think it will take a huge load off of Hattey - he kinda burned out by the end of the season last year.


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